SARIMA Modelling Approach for Forecasting of Traffic Accidents

نویسندگان

چکیده

To achieve greater sustainability of the traffic system, trend accidents in road was analysed. Injuries from are among leading factors suffering people around world. predicted to be third factor contributing human deaths. Road have decreased most countries during last decade because Decade Action for Safety 2011–2020. The main reasons behind reduction improvements construction vehicles and roads, training education drivers, advances medical technology care. primary objective this paper is investigate pattern time series city Belgrade. Time been analysed using exploratory data analysis describe understand data, method regression Box–Jenkins seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA). study found that has a pronounced character. presented mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) 5.22% can seen as an indicator prognosis acceptably accurate. forecasting, context number accidents, may strategy different goals such safety campaigns, strategies action plans objectives defined strategies.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Sustainability

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['2071-1050']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su14084403